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Progreso vs Racing Montevideo Prediction, H2H, Stats & Betting Tips

Uruguay · Primera DivisiónClausura - 8

Progreso

15th in table · 32 pts

LWLLW

Sat 26 Sept 202615:00 WAT

2 : 1

Full time Prediction won

Racing Montevideo

4th in table · 56 pts

LLWLD

Pre-match win probability

10%Progreso45%Draw45%Racing Montevideo

Our prediction

Under 3.5 Goals

A controlled fixture — the goals line sits under 3.5.

Odds1.20
Confidence60%
ResultWon
Pre-match model probabilityPick and odds as published before kick-off
  • Progreso 10%
  • Draw 45%
  • Racing Montevideo 45%

Season statistics

Primera División · 33 matches each · highlighted side is stronger

ProgresoRacing Montevideo
Goals scored (avg)
0.91.2
Goals conceded (avg)Lower is better
1.40.8
Clean sheets
514
Failed to scoreLower is better
139
Wins
915
Biggest win streak
25

Recent form

Last 5 matches · newest first

Progreso3W 0D 7L in last 10
  • 19 SeptBoston River1 – 2ProgresoW
  • 16 SeptProgreso0 – 1Club NacionalL
  • 13 SeptProgreso1 – 3CerroL
  • 7 SeptAlbion FC0 – 1ProgresoW
  • 3 SeptAlbion FC2 – 1ProgresoL
Racing Montevideo4W 3D 3L in last 10
  • 20 SeptLiverpool Montevideo0 – 0Racing MontevideoD
  • 17 SeptJuventud3 – 0Racing MontevideoL
  • 12 SeptRacing Montevideo3 – 2Boston RiverW
  • 9 SeptRacing Montevideo2 – 4Central EspanolL
  • 6 SeptCerro1 – 0Racing MontevideoL
H2H
Head to headProgreso 2W · 2D · Racing Montevideo 3W · 2.7142857142857144 goals a game
  • 26 MarRacing Montevideo1 – 1Progreso
  • 29 SeptRacing Montevideo0 – 0Progreso
  • 22 JunRacing Montevideo3 – 0Progreso
  • 30 MarProgreso0 – 1Racing Montevideo
  • 21 SeptRacing Montevideo1 – 0Progreso
  • 7 JulProgreso3 – 2Racing Montevideo

Betting markets

Model estimate from each team's season scoring and conceding rates

Model xG 2.2
Goal lineOverUnder
0.5 goals88%12%
1.5 goals63%37%
2.5 goals36%64%
3.5 goals17%83%

Both teams to score

Yes41.7%
No58.3%

Double chance

1X · Progreso or draw52.9%
12 · No draw71.5%
X2 · Racing Montevideo or draw75.6%

Correct score

0 – 115.1%
1 – 112.9%
0 – 011.6%

Both teams to score

Yes41.7%
No58.3%

1X

Chance52.9%

12

Chance71.5%

X2

Chance75.6%

0 – 1

Chance15.1%

1 – 1

Chance12.9%

0 – 0

Chance11.6%

1 – 0

Chance9.9%

0 – 2

Chance9.8%

1 – 2

Chance8.4%

2 – 1

Chance5.5%

0 – 3

Chance4.3%

1 / 1

Chance13.3%

1 / X

Chance4.5%

1 / 2

Chance1.9%

X / 1

Chance10%

X / X

Chance19.6%

X / 2

Chance17.4%

2 / 1

Chance1.1%

2 / X

Chance4.5%

2 / 2

Chance27.8%

Model comparison

Predicted winner: Draw · Our pick: Under 3.5 Goals at 1.20

ProgresoRacing Montevideo
Recent form53%47%
Attack56%44%
Defence38%62%
Goals model26%74%
Head-to-head15%85%
Overall34%66%

Goals by time period

When each side scores and concedes, in 15-minute bands

Scored Conceded

Progreso29 scored · 48 conceded

0-1516-3031-4546-6061-7576+

Racing Montevideo39 scored · 27 conceded

0-1516-3031-4546-6061-7576+

Trends

4 match streak · Primera División

Progreso have scored in each of their last 4 matches in Primera División.

Team news

Progreso 4-2-3-1

Coach: Tabare Silva

  1. R. Bacchia
  2. F. Garcia
  3. M. Martin
  4. M. Saravia
  5. A. Cougo
  6. R. Cristobal
  7. A. Pinheiro
  8. G. Trasante
  9. N. Lopez
  10. A. Ocampo
  11. M. Juambeltz

Racing Montevideo 4-4-2

Coach: Cristian Chambian

  1. F. Varese
  2. F. Gonzalez
  3. Brazionis
  4. F. Alvarez
  5. G. Cotugno
  6. A. Vazquez
  7. Agustin De la Cuesta
  8. E. Da Silva
  9. Y. Oyarzo
  10. S. Da Silva
  11. I. Manzur

Progreso vs Racing Montevideo: prediction & preview

Uruguay · Primera División · Sat, 26 Sept 2026 · Parque Abraham Paladino, Montevideo

Progreso host Racing Montevideo in Uruguay Primera División at Parque Abraham Paladino. In the current table, Progreso sit 15th on 32 points and Racing Montevideo are 4th on 56.

Form: Progreso have taken 2W 0D 3L from their last 5, Racing Montevideo 1W 1D 3L from theirs. Over their last 10 matches Progreso average 0.6 goals scored and 1.3 conceded; Racing Montevideo average 1.2 and 1.3.

In their last 7 meetings Progreso have won 2, Racing Montevideo 3 and 2 were drawn, averaging 2.7 goals a game with both teams scoring in 43%.

The feed's model puts Progreso at 10%, the draw at 45% and Racing Montevideo at 45%. Its own advice: Combo Double chance : draw or Racing Montevideo and -3.5 goals.

Our published call was Under 3.5 Goals at 1.20, which landed.

Published by 4CastBetFree football predictions

Progreso vs Racing Montevideo FAQs

9 questions

When is the match between Progreso and Racing Montevideo?

Progreso v Racing Montevideo was played on Sat, 26 September 2026 at 14:00 UTC.

Which league is this match in?

Uruguay Primera División, Clausura - 8.

What is their ranking in the league table this season?

Progreso are 15th in the table, while Racing Montevideo are 4th.

What is the prediction for Progreso vs Racing Montevideo?

Our prediction is Under 3.5 Goals at odds of 1.20.

Who is most likely to win Progreso vs Racing Montevideo?

The draw and Racing Montevideo are level at the top: Progreso 10%, draw 45%, Racing Montevideo 45%.

Will both teams score in Progreso vs Racing Montevideo?

Both teams scored in 30% of Progreso's last 10 matches and 40% of Racing Montevideo's last 10.

How accurate is the prediction for this match?

The prediction is based on statistical analysis and the football data available for both teams. Every pick is marked won or lost after full time, so the record can be checked.

How often are predictions updated?

Predictions are refreshed as new results, line-ups and odds become available, and finished matches are graded automatically.

Are these predictions guaranteed?

No. Football betting involves real financial risk and no prediction is a guaranteed outcome. Predictions are informational and entertainment content — bet within your means.