What a prediction is, and is not
A prediction is analysis, not a promise. Sport has upsets every week, so no site can know a result in advance. What we can do is read the numbers honestly, show our working and keep a public record. That is what 4CastBet means by Mathematical Prediction and AI Tips. For the record itself see accuracy and results, or start with today's football predictions.
What is a mathematical prediction?
It is a probability worked out from data rather than a hunch. If the model gives the home side a 60% chance and the bookmaker's price, with its margin removed, implies 52%, that pick is worth listing. If the two numbers agree, there is nothing to say. The figure shown next to every pick is the chance implied by the price, so you can compare it with your own view.
What do the AI tips add?
A model reads numbers; it does not read the news. The AI-assisted review is the second pair of eyes: it looks at lineups, injuries, rotation and the importance of the match, and flags the picks where the context changes the picture. It cannot make a pick certain, and it does not try to.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs) on How Our Predictions Work
Are the predictions made by a person or a model?
A mathematical model reads the data and proposes the picks. An AI-assisted review then checks the strongest ones for news the numbers cannot see, such as injuries, rotation and cup context, before they are published.
What does the chance figure mean?
It is the chance implied by the bookmaker price once the margin is removed, shown so you can compare picks quickly. It is an estimate, not a promise.
Do you hide losing picks?
No. Every finished pick is marked won or lost, and the accuracy page counts the losses in every win rate.
Does the method change by sport?
The steps are the same for football, basketball, hockey, handball and American football. The inputs change, for example goals for football and hockey, points for basketball and American football.