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Sao Paulo vs Santos Prediction, H2H, Stats & Betting Tips

Brazil · Serie ARegular Season - 21

Sao Paulo

8th in table · 42 pts

WLLDW

Sat 3 Oct 202600:00 WAT

1 : 2

Full time Prediction won

Santos

9th in table · 42 pts

WWWLW

Pre-match win probability

10%Sao Paulo45%Draw45%Santos

Our prediction

Over 1.5 Goals

The market prices at least two goals at 1.33.

Odds1.33
Confidence95%
ResultWon
Pre-match model probabilityPick and odds as published before kick-off
  • Sao Paulo 10%
  • Draw 45%
  • Santos 45%

Season statistics

Serie A · 31 matches each · highlighted side is stronger

Sao PauloSantos
Goals scored (avg)
1.21.5
Goals conceded (avg)Lower is better
1.11.5
Clean sheets
76
Failed to scoreLower is better
73
Wins
1211
Biggest win streak
45

Recent form

Last 5 matches · newest first

Sao Paulo4W 3D 3L in last 10
  • 20 SeptSao Paulo1 – 0InternacionalW
  • 16 SeptSao Paulo1 – 1Boca JuniorsD
  • 12 SeptPalmeiras2 – 0Sao PauloL
  • 9 SeptBoca Juniors1 – 0Sao PauloL
  • 5 SeptSao Paulo2 – 0Atletico-MGW
Santos5W 3D 2L in last 10
  • 19 SeptRemo1 – 2SantosW
  • 16 SeptAtletico-MG4 – 2SantosL
  • 13 SeptSantos2 – 1CruzeiroW
  • 9 SeptSantos2 – 0Atletico-MGW
  • 6 SeptInternacional2 – 3SantosW
H2H
Head to headSao Paulo 2W · 2D · Santos 3W · 1.8571428571428572 goals a game
  • 4 FebSantos1 – 1Sao Paulo
  • 31 JanSao Paulo2 – 0Santos
  • 21 SeptSantos1 – 0Sao Paulo
  • 20 AprSao Paulo2 – 1Santos
  • 1 FebSantos3 – 1Sao Paulo
  • 14 FebSao Paulo0 – 1Santos

Betting markets

Model estimate from each team's season scoring and conceding rates

Model xG 2.7
Goal lineOverUnder
0.5 goals93%7%
1.5 goals74%26%
2.5 goals49%51%
3.5 goals28%73%

Both teams to score

Yes53.9%
No46.1%

Double chance

1X · Sao Paulo or draw64.2%
12 · No draw73.9%
X2 · Santos or draw61.9%

Correct score

1 – 112.4%
1 – 09.5%
0 – 19.2%

Both teams to score

Yes53.9%
No46.1%

1X

Chance64.2%

12

Chance73.9%

X2

Chance61.9%

1 – 1

Chance12.4%

1 – 0

Chance9.5%

0 – 1

Chance9.2%

2 – 1

Chance8.4%

1 – 2

Chance8.1%

0 – 0

Chance7.1%

2 – 0

Chance6.4%

0 – 2

Chance6%

1 / 1

Chance22.4%

1 / X

Chance5.2%

1 / 2

Chance2.1%

X / 1

Chance13.5%

X / X

Chance15.7%

X / 2

Chance12.8%

2 / 1

Chance2.2%

2 / X

Chance5.2%

2 / 2

Chance20.8%

Model comparison

Predicted winner: Draw · Our pick: Over 1.5 Goals at 1.33

Sao PauloSantos
Recent form41%59%
Attack36%64%
Defence56%44%
Goals model62%38%
Head-to-head50%50%
Overall49%51%

Goals by time period

When each side scores and concedes, in 15-minute bands

Scored Conceded

Sao Paulo35 scored · 36 conceded

0-1516-3031-4546-6061-7576+

Santos47 scored · 44 conceded

0-1516-3031-4546-6061-7576+

Shots & passes

Per-game averages over the last 6 matches

Sao Paulo

Total shots13
Blocked4.5
53% off target47% on target
64% inside box36% outside box
Total passes443.3
Accurate passes359 (81%)
Possession48%

Santos

Total shots16.3
Blocked4.7
56% off target44% on target
50% inside box50% outside box
Total passes540.2
Accurate passes463 (86%)
Possession53%

Trends

6 match streak · Serie A

Santos have scored in each of their last 6 matches in Serie A.

6 match streak · Serie A

Santos are unbeaten in their last 6 matches in Serie A.

4 match streak · Serie A

Santos have won each of their last 4 matches in Serie A.

Team news

Sao Paulo 3-4-3

  1. Carlos Coronel
  2. Pablo Maia
  3. Robert Arboleda
  4. Rafael Tolói
  5. Pedro Lima
  6. Damián Bobadilla
  7. Marcos Antônio
  8. Iago Borduchi
  9. Artur
  10. Luciano
  11. Ryan Francisco

Santos 4-2-3-1

  1. Diogenes
  2. Rodinei
  3. Lucas Veríssimo
  4. Willian Arão
  5. Gonzalo Escobar
  6. Christian Oliva
  7. Arthur
  8. Álvaro Barreal
  9. Lima
  10. Everton Cebolinha
  11. Gabriel Barbosa

Injuries and suspensions

  • N. Bosshardt (Sao Paulo): Inactive
  • Buta (Sao Paulo): Knee Injury
  • Djhordney (Sao Paulo): International duty
  • D. Duarte (Sao Paulo): Knee Injury
  • Jonathan Calleri (Sao Paulo): Yellow Cards
  • Lucas Moura (Sao Paulo): Achilles Tendon Injury
  • Lucca Marques (Sao Paulo): Jaw injury
  • P. dos Santos (Sao Paulo): International duty
  • Gabriel Bontempo (Santos): Yellow Cards
  • Gabriel Brazao (Santos): Shoulder Injury
  • Luan Peres (Santos): Yellow Cards
  • Neymar (Santos): Thigh Injury

Sao Paulo vs Santos: prediction & preview

Brazil · Serie A · Sat, 3 Oct 2026 · Estadio Do MorumBIS, Sao Paulo

Sao Paulo host Santos in Brazil Serie A at Estadio Do MorumBIS. In the current table, Sao Paulo sit 8th on 42 points and Santos are 9th on 42.

Form: Sao Paulo have taken 2W 1D 2L from their last 5, Santos 4W 0D 1L from theirs. Over their last 10 matches Sao Paulo average 1.1 goals scored and 0.9 conceded; Santos average 1.3 and 1.2.

In their last 7 meetings Sao Paulo have won 2, Santos 3 and 2 were drawn, averaging 1.9 goals a game with both teams scoring in 43%.

The feed's model puts Sao Paulo at 10%, the draw at 45% and Santos at 45%. Its own advice: Double chance : draw or Santos.

Our published call was Over 1.5 Goals at 1.33, which landed.

Published by 4CastBetFree football predictions

Sao Paulo vs Santos FAQs

9 questions

When is the match between Sao Paulo and Santos?

Sao Paulo v Santos was played on Fri, 2 October 2026 at 23:00 UTC.

Which league is this match in?

Brazil Serie A, Regular Season - 21.

What is their ranking in the league table this season?

Sao Paulo are 8th in the table, while Santos are 9th.

What is the prediction for Sao Paulo vs Santos?

Our prediction is Over 1.5 Goals at odds of 1.33.

Who is most likely to win Sao Paulo vs Santos?

The draw and Santos are level at the top: Sao Paulo 10%, draw 45%, Santos 45%.

Will both teams score in Sao Paulo vs Santos?

Both teams scored in 50% of Sao Paulo's last 10 matches and 50% of Santos's last 10.

How accurate is the prediction for this match?

The prediction is based on statistical analysis and the football data available for both teams. Every pick is marked won or lost after full time, so the record can be checked.

How often are predictions updated?

Predictions are refreshed as new results, line-ups and odds become available, and finished matches are graded automatically.

Are these predictions guaranteed?

No. Football betting involves real financial risk and no prediction is a guaranteed outcome. Predictions are informational and entertainment content — bet within your means.