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Chapecoense-sc vs Atletico Paranaense Prediction, H2H, Stats & Betting Tips

Brazil · Serie ARegular Season - 30

Chapecoense-sc

20th in table · 18 pts

WLDDL

Mon 12 Oct 202623:30 WAT

1 : 4

Full time Prediction won

Atletico Paranaense

3rd in table · 53 pts

DLDWD

Pre-match win probability

10%Chapecoense-sc45%Draw45%Atletico Paranaense

Our prediction

Over 1.5 Goals

The goals line for this fixture sits over 1.5.

Odds1.28
Confidence80%
ResultWon
Pre-match model probabilityPick and odds as published before kick-off
  • Chapecoense-sc 10%
  • Draw 45%
  • Atletico Paranaense 45%

Season statistics

Serie A · 30 matches each · highlighted side is stronger

Chapecoense-scAtletico Paranaense
Goals scored (avg)
11.6
Goals conceded (avg)Lower is better
2.11.2
Clean sheets
28
Failed to scoreLower is better
107
Wins
315
Biggest win streak
14

Recent form

Last 5 matches · newest first

Chapecoense-sc2W 3D 5L in last 10
  • 7 OctVitoria4 – 0Chapecoense-scL
  • 26 SeptAtletico Nacional1 – 1Chapecoense-scD
  • 19 SeptAtletico-MG1 – 1Chapecoense-scD
  • 12 SeptChapecoense-sc1 – 2InternacionalL
  • 6 SeptCorinthians1 – 2Chapecoense-scW
Atletico Paranaense4W 4D 2L in last 10
  • 8 OctAtletico Paranaense2 – 2Atletico-MGD
  • 20 SeptAtletico Paranaense2 – 1BahiaW
  • 12 SeptCoritiba3 – 3Atletico ParanaenseD
  • 6 SeptCruzeiro3 – 1Atletico ParanaenseL
  • 30 AugAtletico Paranaense3 – 3FluminenseD
H2H
Head to headChapecoense-sc 0W · 5D · Atletico Paranaense 2W · 2.7142857142857144 goals a game
  • 12 AprAtletico Paranaense2 – 0Chapecoense-sc
  • 17 SeptChapecoense-sc2 – 3Atletico Paranaense
  • 9 MayAtletico Paranaense1 – 1Chapecoense-sc
  • 13 OctChapecoense-sc1 – 1Atletico Paranaense
  • 27 JunAtletico Paranaense2 – 2Chapecoense-sc
  • 29 SeptAtletico Paranaense1 – 1Chapecoense-SC

Betting markets

Model estimate from each team's season scoring and conceding rates

Model xG 3
Goal lineOverUnder
0.5 goals95%5%
1.5 goals79%21%
2.5 goals57%43%
3.5 goals34%66%

Both teams to score

Yes56.2%
No43.8%

Double chance

1X · Chapecoense-sc or draw45.1%
12 · No draw77.3%
X2 · Atletico Paranaense or draw77.6%

Correct score

1 – 110.7%
1 – 29.9%
0 – 19.7%

Both teams to score

Yes56.2%
No43.8%

1X

Chance45.1%

12

Chance77.3%

X2

Chance77.6%

1 – 1

Chance10.7%

1 – 2

Chance9.9%

0 – 1

Chance9.7%

0 – 2

Chance9%

1 – 3

Chance6.1%

2 – 1

Chance5.9%

1 – 0

Chance5.8%

0 – 3

Chance5.5%

1 / 1

Chance12.6%

1 / X

Chance4.8%

1 / 2

Chance3%

X / 1

Chance8.3%

X / X

Chance13.1%

X / 2

Chance17.3%

2 / 1

Chance1.6%

2 / X

Chance4.8%

2 / 2

Chance34.6%

Model comparison

Predicted winner: Draw · Our pick: Over 1.5 Goals at 1.28

Chapecoense-scAtletico Paranaense
Recent form40%60%
Attack31%69%
Defence52%48%
Goals model35%65%
Head-to-head25%75%
Overall37%63%

Goals by time period

When each side scores and concedes, in 15-minute bands

Scored Conceded

Chapecoense-sc31 scored · 61 conceded

0-1516-3031-4546-6061-7576+

Atletico Paranaense49 scored · 37 conceded

0-1516-3031-4546-6061-7576+

Shots & passes

Per-game averages over the last 6 matches

Chapecoense-sc

Total shots14
Blocked3.2
61% off target39% on target
59% inside box41% outside box
Total passes442.6
Accurate passes378 (85%)
Possession46%

Atletico Paranaense

Total shots16.2
Blocked4
42% off target58% on target
61% inside box39% outside box
Total passes400.3
Accurate passes332.3 (83%)
Possession45%

Trends

8 match streak · Serie A

Atletico Paranaense have scored in each of their last 8 matches in Serie A.

7 match streak · Serie A

Atletico Paranaense have conceded in each of their last 7 matches in Serie A.

7 match streak · Serie A

Both teams have scored in each of Atletico Paranaense's last 7 matches in Serie A.

6 match streak · Serie A

Over 2.5 goals have been scored in each of Atletico Paranaense's last 6 matches in Serie A.

Team news

Chapecoense-sc 4-2-3-1

Coach: Rafael Lacerda

  1. Anderson
  2. Dudu
  3. Kauan Faria Gomes
  4. João Paulo
  5. Bruno Pacheco
  6. Yago Felipe
  7. Bruno Matias
  8. Marcinho
  9. Giovanni Augusto
  10. Garcez
  11. Tulio Eduardo Silva De Oliveira

Atletico Paranaense 3-4-2-1

Coach: Odair Hellmann

  1. Mycael
  2. Arthur Dias
  3. J. Aguirre
  4. L. Esquivel
  5. Gilberto
  6. Jádson
  7. Luiz Gustavo
  8. S. Mendoza
  9. Leozinho
  10. João Cruz
  11. K. Viveros

Injuries and suspensions

  • Fernando (Chapecoense-sc): Yellow Cards
  • Heitor (Chapecoense-sc): Hamstring Injury
  • Max Alves (Chapecoense-sc): Back Injury
  • Rafael Carvalheira (Chapecoense-sc): Knee Injury
  • Robert Conceicao (Chapecoense-sc): Knee Injury
  • Vinicius Balieiro (Chapecoense-sc): Knee Injury
  • G. Benavidez (Atletico Paranaense): Muscle Injury
  • K. A. Calderon Vargas (Atletico Paranaense): Inactive
  • Dantas (Atletico Paranaense): Inactive
  • C. Teran (Atletico Paranaense): Inactive
  • Fernando (Chapecoense-sc): Yellow Cards
  • Heitor (Chapecoense-sc): Hamstring Injury

Chapecoense-sc vs Atletico Paranaense: prediction & preview

Brazil · Serie A · Mon, 12 Oct 2026 · Arena Condá, Chapeco

Chapecoense-sc host Atletico Paranaense in Brazil Serie A at Arena Condá. In the current table, Chapecoense-sc sit 20th on 18 points and Atletico Paranaense are 3rd on 53.

Form: Chapecoense-sc have taken 1W 2D 2L from their last 5, Atletico Paranaense 1W 3D 1L from theirs. Over their last 10 matches Chapecoense-sc average 1.1 goals scored and 1.9 conceded; Atletico Paranaense average 1.9 and 1.9.

In their last 7 meetings Chapecoense-sc have won 0, Atletico Paranaense 2 and 5 were drawn, averaging 2.7 goals a game with both teams scoring in 86%.

The feed's model puts Chapecoense-sc at 10%, the draw at 45% and Atletico Paranaense at 45%. Its own advice: Combo Double chance : draw or Atletico Paranaense and +1.5 goals.

Our published call was Over 1.5 Goals at 1.28, which landed.

Published by 4CastBetFree football predictions

Chapecoense-sc vs Atletico Paranaense FAQs

9 questions

When is the match between Chapecoense-sc and Atletico Paranaense?

Chapecoense-sc v Atletico Paranaense was played on Mon, 12 October 2026 at 22:30 UTC.

Which league is this match in?

Brazil Serie A, Regular Season - 30.

What is their ranking in the league table this season?

Chapecoense-sc are 20th in the table, while Atletico Paranaense are 3rd.

What is the prediction for Chapecoense-sc vs Atletico Paranaense?

Our prediction is Over 1.5 Goals at odds of 1.28.

Who is most likely to win Chapecoense-sc vs Atletico Paranaense?

The draw and Atletico Paranaense are level at the top: Chapecoense-sc 10%, draw 45%, Atletico Paranaense 45%.

Will both teams score in Chapecoense-sc vs Atletico Paranaense?

Both teams scored in 70% of Chapecoense-sc's last 10 matches and 70% of Atletico Paranaense's last 10.

How accurate is the prediction for this match?

The prediction is based on statistical analysis and the football data available for both teams. Every pick is marked won or lost after full time, so the record can be checked.

How often are predictions updated?

Predictions are refreshed as new results, line-ups and odds become available, and finished matches are graded automatically.

Are these predictions guaranteed?

No. Football betting involves real financial risk and no prediction is a guaranteed outcome. Predictions are informational and entertainment content — bet within your means.